Read it here.

House passes Dem health care bill by a vote of 220 to 215.

One Republican voted for the Democratic bill: Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA). See this post from earlier this evening on the background to his vote. Here's Cao's statement on his vote.

Late Update: Here's the roll call on the final vote. And for those keeping score at home here's the roll call on the Stupak abortion amendment.

218 for; only one Dem yet to vote.

Late Update: We have one GOP vote for -- presumably that's Rep. Cao (R-LA), though no confirmation on that yet.

The final vote appears to be 220 - 215.

10:58 PM: With amendments and procedural mumbojumbo out of the way, the actual vote is about to get underway.

11:01 PM: Not too much to talk about on a final vote live blog. Currently at 196 for, 29 Dems voting against.

11:03 PM: Currently ten more votes needed and 14 Dems still to vote. Presumably they're going to do this on a straight 218, just like in the Clinton years. No 'wasted' votes.

GOP alternative amendment (i.e., the House GOP's bill) goes down to defeat 258-176.

Late Update: Rep. Tim Johnson (R-IL) was the sole Republican to vote against the Boehner bill. No one seem really clear as to what his reasoning was. As I noted below, Rep. Cao (R-LA) is the only member of the Republican caucus believed to be in play. And he voted for it, though in a high stakes case like this it would not be surprising to see him vote for both.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) ...

I wonder if Michele Bachmann wearing a lei (on the Floor) means she has recognized that Hawaii is a state and President Obama is a citizen?

Scenes from today's debate that you really just have to see. Video after the jump.

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Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA)

Roll Call reports that the House Dems may be able to pick up one Republican vote for the health care bill: Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-La.) A former Jesuit seminarian, the Dems move to allow a vote on the pro-life "Stupak amendment" appears to have been key for Cao.

But also remember Cao's political position.

Read more »

A Democratic source tells us the House, which has been debating the health care bill all day, will be able to pass the plan tonight.

The source said they have the needed 218 votes.

Coming up is debate about the amendment dealing with abortion, and then the Republicans will get an hour to present their alternative plan.

Votes will start around 10 p.m. The final vote might happen close to midnight.

Video:House debates health reform bill.

Pelosi emerges from caucus meeting confident that House bill will pass tonight.

After a late-night deal setting framework for debate, the House will vote today on its version of the health care plan. Before the vote, Democrats are getting a little last minute pep talk from President Obama.

Read our primer here, and if you want to see government in action today, click on C-Span.

On the one hand it seems funny that a bunch of GOP Reps. would blow off a vote to strengthen the Patriot Act so they could hang out and speak at Michele Bachmann's Capitol Hill tea party event. On the other hand, since you have Republicans saying health care reform is a bigger threat than terrorism, maybe the whole thing makes sense?

Is it appropriate for Tea Partiers to use images of concentration camp victims to illustrate the horrors of health care reform? "You bet," says former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO).

Late Update: I went back watched the video in question several times. And though Tancredo said "you bet" to the "appropriate" question, it seems to me that he got confused in the cross-talk between him and the interviewer David Shuster. In context, I think Tancredo meant to say it was inappropriate, in other words, the opposite. The perils of live smash-mouth television. Don't worry. Tancredo said lots of other crazy stuff. But I don't think he meant to say this was okay.

How did Michele Bachmann's Tea Party extravaganza end up being embraced by the whole House GOP House conference? Find out here.

Daniel Levy looks at this week's bumps on the never-ending road to peace in the Middle East.

It's a pretty unhappy commentary that it has to be reported as news that people are taking issue with the use of pictures of the Dachau death camp as an illustration of the horrors of health care reform. But, alas, such is the world we're living in. Today Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) criticized Rep. Bachmann for the Holocaust imagery --- and really, what the hell is going on here? People carrying banners with Dachau and the crowd chanting "Nazi, Nazi" when the President and key Dems are mentioned. And GOP leaders just stand their whooping it up like it's all good stuff?

Anyway, pardon the outburst. So Israel says that. And now Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) is calling the Dachau posters "inappropriate" and even crossing the red line of criticizing Rush Limbaugh's habit of equating Obama and Hitler.

Can't wait for the ritual apology. How long you figure it'll take?

Rep. Steve King (R-IA) got so charged up about yesterday's Capitol Tea Party that he's calling for another one tomorrow.

TPMDC's video coverage of yesterday's Capitol Hill Tea Party.

A new addition to the Urban Dictionary.

The "independent" ethics adviser that astroturf lobbyist Jack Bonner told Congress he'd retained in the wake of the flap over those forged letters to lawmakers has backed out of the role, citing the TPMmuckraker-driven fallout over an ad he placed praising Bonner.

Orlando's police chief has just confirmed that the suspected gunman in the Orlando office shooting has been apprehended. She also confirmed that at least one person was killed in the shooting.

Details are still sketchy and the numbers keep changing. But it seems that at least six people were hurt in the Orlando office shooting. The suspected shooter is reportedly Jason Rodriguez, 40. He allegedly opened fire in the office of Reynolds Smith & Hill -- in the building where he used to work. Rodriguez is still not in custody.

Several GOP lawmakers seem to have blown off House Judiciary committee votes on the Patriot Act in favor of toasting Tea Partiers at Michelle Bachmann's rally against health care reform on Capitol Hill yesterday.

Reps. Steve King of Iowa, Trent Franks of Arizona, Randy Forbes of Virginia, Jim Jordan of Ohio, and Louie Gohmert and Ted Poe of Texas all showed up at the Tea Party -- and all missed Patriot Act votes that took place at about the same time. Some of the votes on Republican-sponsored amendments to the reauthorization of the Patriot Act were close enough that they might have passed had more GOPers bothered to show up.

TPMmuckraker has the story.

Details are sketchy, but all three major cable networks are reporting a shooting at an office in Orlando. The suspected shooter is apparently still on the loose, and around eight people have reportedly already been shot.

Yesterday TPMDC's Christina Bellantoni witnessed the arrests of 10 people in and around Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office during the Capitol Hill Tea Party. We've got video of the arrests here.

Today, Capitol Police tell TPMDC that 12 arrests were made -- but that none of the people arrested were Tea Partiers. Turns out they were anti-abortion activists. TPMDC's Evan McMorris-Santoro has the story.

Yesterday's Tea Party on Capitol Hill drew thousands of protesters from across the country. But how many exactly? Depends who you ask.

MSNBC reported yesterday that a Capitol policeman said there were 3,000 to 3,500 people there. Our reporters on the scene estimated the crowd size at no more than 8,000 or so.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), on the other hand, says 25,000 to 45,000. Rep. Tom Price (R-GA) offered a similar estimate. And G. Gordon Liddy's radio show producer implied it was more than a million. TPMDC's Eric Kleefeld has the story.

Hoyer says the House Dems are "very close" to having their 218 votes.

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) resists NRSC chairman John Cornyn big-tent strategy on candidate recruitment: "He's trying to find candidates who can win. I'm trying to find people who can help me change the Senate." That and other political news in today's TPMDC Morning Roundup.

Jon Stewart's epic spoof of Glenn Beck.

Need I say more?

Surprise, surprise, seems like pro-life extremist Randall Terry was at the center of that incident at Speaker Pelosi's office where a bunch of Tea Partiers got arrested. Somehow he didn't get arrested though. Video after the jump ...

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President Obama will meet with newly-elected Rep. Bill Owens (D-NY) tomorrow afternoon.

Very weird turn of events. And we're not quite sure what to make of it. But Army authorities have just announced that accused Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan is in fact still alive, contrary to earlier reports that he'd been shot and killed by police.

Late Update: Another important new detail. The two other suspects who were taken into custody were released and apparently ruled out as accomplices. So it seems possible, perhaps likely, that Hassan acted alone.

TPMDC's Evan McMorris-Santoro spent the day among the Tea Party crowd at the Capitol. And Christina Bellantoni filed this report on what the Tea Partiers are saying about 2010 based on interviews she conducted with the protestors. Both are great reads. And I'd suggest reading both of them.

In many ways, though, what struck me most about today was what happened at the podium.

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Capitol Tea Party protestor Christi Becker on Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN): "She exudes truth. I completely trust her. I'm glad people are seeing that Michele Bachmann has backing and that so many people believe in her."

(Video of the arrests.)

See more scenes from the day in our Storming the Capitol/Capitol Tea Party Slideshow...

Multiple news organizations are reporting that one of the suspected gunman, apparently the one who fired most of the shots, at Fort Hood is Major Malik Nadal Hasan, 39. He was shot dead during the shooting.

Late Update: The most recent statements seem to cast some doubt over whether there were multiple shooters or whether Hassan may have been the only assailant.

Latter Update: The fact that the primary assailant has an Arabic name and is presumably, though we don't know this yet, of Muslim extraction if not a practicing Muslim, is going to be the focus of attention. That is an issue that speaks for itself. And I'm sure it will be the focus of much discussion over the coming days. But in some ways what's more shocking to me is that the assailant was an Army Major. Whatever the motivation -- ideological, religious, nationalist, mental instability, etc. I would far more expect something like this to done by a young soldier, perhaps an enlisted person. Needless to say this is no knock on enlisted personnel. But a lot of people cycle through the Army. Many have only been in service for a relatively short period of time. A major though is a lifer, usually I would think someone who's been in for a couple decades or near to it more than a decade, who's risen very high in the ranks.

Even Later Update: Late reports suggest that Hasan was an Army psychiatrist. That changes the picture somewhat. As TPM Reader BC points out, MDs can come into the Army as Captains. If popular culture is your reference, remember the doctors on MASH were Captains, even though they were drafted in for the Korean War. What that means is that Hasan might not have been in military all that long, which changes the picture somewhat.

We've got a lot happening today -- the Tea Party extravaganza on Capitol Hill, with protestors now roaming the halls, and this horrific mass shooting incident at Ford Hood, details of which are just emerging. But we also have more news on negotiations in the senate over the health care bill -- and a group of Dem moderates possibly coalescing into their own faction.

We just got the first official briefing on the Fort Hood shooting. And according to the base official each of the shooters who have been identified (one shot and killed, two others in custody) were soldiers.

Gov. Charlie Crist says he barely knows accused $100 million fraudster Scott Rothstein. The evidence seems to disagree.

Ahh, the full freak out.

Ten Tea Party protestors were arrested for trying to force their way in to Nancy Pelosi's congressional office this afternoon. (To be clear, that's the office that handles her constituent work as opposed to her leadership office which is actually where she works.) There was then another big uproar as the arrestees were led out of the building for transport. "This is America, this is not the Soviet Union," said one protestor watching the arrestees.

We have video of the scene when the arrestees were being led out of the building.

The situation at Fort Hood is obviously extremely sketchy. But I wanted to flag a late report from MSNBC's Pete Williams suggesting that initial reports from within the Pentagon say the incident appears to be "all military," i.e., the victims are military but apparently the assailants are too.

I want to be very clear. There is nothing confirmed about this. This a reporter getting initial and unofficial reports from within the Pentagon. But authorities on the base do have one shooter in custody. So presumably military officials know who that person is and are drawing inferences based on that.

A reader reports in from the Hill ...

Lines are out the door in Rayburn. just saw Barney Frank and Robert Wexler getting harangued in the halls. The best was the woman telling Wexler that she'll "remember how he votes" not realizing he's resigning from his seat.

Details are still sketchy, but MSNBC is reporting that seven people were killed and 12 injured in a shooting at Fort Hood Army base in Texas.

At the Capitol Hill Tea Party, TPMDC's Christina Bellantoni happened upon what looked to be a series of several arrests -- for an as-yet unidentified offense. She reports that a crowd of Tea Partiers began heckling Capitol Police and singing "God Bless America" while several people were being detained.

There's also a massive backup of people outside Longworth office building. They've blocked traffic and some supportive cars are honking. Many protesters are shouting, "Kill the bill!"

We'll have video for you soon.

The parade of GOP speeches is over, and now lines of Tea Party protesters are forming outside House office buildings at the Capitol Hill Tea Party. We'll be reporting the latest as they move inside.

We're hearing a lot today about the House Republican health care reform alternative bill. Less mention of the CBO announcing that it saved money by not covering any new people.

President Obama just appeared in the White House briefing room a few moments to announce and embrace the endorsements of AARP and the AMA for the House version of the health care reform bill.

Rep. Joe Wilson (R) hits the stage to wild applause.

Jon Voight speaking at the rally with members of Congress: ""His only success in his one-year term as president is taking America apart, piece by piece. Could it be he has had 20 years of subconscious programming by Rev. Wright to damn America?"

This is event is so momentous, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) has apparently decided to deepen his voice specially for the event.

It's interesting to note that they've got a decent turnout of members of Congress up on the stage in this event this morning. Not just Michele Bachmann. This sort of dovetails with what we mentioned earlier, which was members of the Republican Study Committee in the House trying to rebrand the event not as a "protest" or a "rally" but rather a "press event" or "press conference."

Bachmann is operating as the MC, introducing the speakers. Boehner is speaking now. I'm very curious and very dubious whether the GOP leaders are going to allow crowds from a rally they're speaking at fan out and try to occupy the Speaker's office.

On the other hand, in the crowd Boehner is speaking to, there's a rally poster with images of corpses from Dachau denouncing "National Socialist Health Care."

Talk show yakker Mark Levin mounts the podium.

We're watching to see what comes of it. But there are apparently a group of Tea Partiers organizing a sit-in in Speaker Pelosi's office at 1:45 PM. Only they're telling people an office number that isn't Pelosi's office. So it's hard to say how well that's going to come off. And presumably, if the Capitol police know in advance what you're trying to do that might put a bit of a damper on things.

Tea Party crowd tries to "drive the liberals crazy" by reciting the pledge of allegiance.

AARP endorses House Dem health care bill.

Former NYC Commissioner and onetime Homeland Security Secretary nominee Bernard Kerik pleads guilty to one count of lying to the White House during his vetting process -- one of what is expected to be eight separate pleas to resolve his various criminal cases.

The crowd down at the Capitol is growing. Two or three thousand, estimates one of our reporters on the scene. There's apparently a group trying to organize a sit-in at Pelosi's office in the early afternoon, a sit-in to read the whole reform bill out loud. "We're going to have a sit in."

Who says political theater is dead?

If you're on the Hill and particularly in the building, keep sending us your updates. We haven't been able to respond to all of them. But they're all getting a close read. Very helpful.

Rep. Nathan Deal (R) of Georgia, who entered the primary for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Georgia, just announced that he's co-signing a letter with several of House colleagues asking President Obama to turn over his birth certificate and prove he's eligible to serve as president.

The crowd is gathering for the Capitol Hill Tea Party event at noon. And our man on the scene says a real crowd is shaping up. About a thousand protestors are on hand at the moment, according to Evan's informal estimate. But remember, the event doesn't get under way for another 45 minutes.

We have our first eight nine protestors arrested today on Capitol Hill. But, wait! They're not Tea Partiers. A group of reform supporters briefly "occupied" Sen. Lieberman's office before getting marched off by Capitol police.

New House Republican health care bill saves money by insuring almost no one.

The Republican Study Committee is encouraging members of Congress to show up at noon at the Capitol Hill Tea Party event. But they're at pains to tell members not to call it a "protest" or a "rally." It's a "press event" or "press conference."

Meanwhile the people actually organizing the event are calling it a "desperate act" and a "last stand" in the fight against death panels and socialism. In other words, Rep. Bachmann and her fellow rally organizers have attendees ginned up for some kind of anti-Health Care Reform Alamo.

On one level it's an entertaining example of channel conflict. But it's also a revealing, real-time illustration of the struggle within the GOP to control and define and tame anti-reform activism.

Remember, if you're on the Hill today, if you're a staffer, whatever, help us keep track of what's happening. Check out this post from last night for how to keep us posted in real time on what you're seeing as the protestors fan out through the halls looking for members of Congress who are trying to take away their health care.

The newly-elected Republican mayor of Manchester, New Hampshire, has gotten phone calls from Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and George Pataki: "I don't know who is running for president but I don't mind telling you who has called." That and other political news in today's TPMDC Morning Roundup.

We sent TPMDC's Evan McMorris-Santoro deep into the heart of the crazy tonight to get a preview of what we can expect from tomorrow's Tea Party / Town Hall on Capitol Hill. Evan sat in on a series of planning conference calls this evening and just filed this report.

Okay, sorry for the abrupt call to attention. But we need your help with something.

We're going to be covering Michele Bachmann's Capitol Hill Tea Party/Town Hall event tomorrow. Not just the rally outside the building but whatever it is that's going to happen inside afterwards, with Bachmann leading the protestors through the halls looking for members of Congress who might vote for health care reform. We're going to have one, probably two reporters on the scene.

But it's an awfully big network of buildings. And they can't be everywhere. If this summer's town halls are any indication, it's going to be quite a scene. And we're already picking up indications that the crowd is being primed with stories of Nancy Pelosi getting the Capitol police to crack down on the protestors. Sort of a heady mindset going in, you might say. And there will be a lot you see that we won't.

So can you help be our eyes and ears? Whatever you see, ping us at the comments email address up at the upper right. Your anonymity, as always, is guaranteed.

Rep. Bachmann (R-MN) no-comments questions about resignation of Chief of Staff.

We've spent the day trying to get a handle on just what Michele Bachmann (R-MN) has in mind with her boffo Capitol Hill Tea Party event tomorrow, whether she's going to get the crowd riled up and just send them in or actually lead the protestors into the offices. On a conference call a few moments ago, though, she said she'd personally lead Tea Partiers to the office of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR).

"If we stop [HCR] I think it could be dead for 10 years," she says.

Not sure I disagree on the last point.

Crist on NY-23: It was "kind of a funky situation."

Sigh, I knew this would get fun.

As you know, Rep. Michele Bachmann is planning her mega-Capitol Hill Tea Party tomorrow followed by Bachmann leading Tea Partiers through the halls of Congress demanding Congress not take away their health care.

A few moments ago Fox News host Andrew Napolitano told Bachmann that "a friend in the American intelligence community" suggested to him that Nancy Pelosi might mount some sort of Capitol Hill security clampdown to stop the Tea Party event. (The idea apparently is that Pelosi would instruct Capitol security to become so onerous that, in essence, no one would be able to get into the building. Note to Tea Partiers: The Capitol building is not a 2nd Amendment zone.)

Not surprisingly Bachmann rose to the bait, telling Napolitano that it would be a "big mistake" for Pelosi to use her power to sabotage the Tea Party.

Looks like things are primed for a very orderly event tomorrow.

One-time 'moderate' Mark Kirk approaches intermediary to ask for help in getting Sarah Palin's endorsement to ward off potential Hoffmanization in Illinois senate race.

AARP has scheduled what it's calling a major announcement tomorrow at 11:30 AM in DC. Hints but no confirmation that they'll endorse the Dem health care bill.

Newsweek and the American Petroleum Institute team up for a special global warming forum on Capitol Hill.

Here's my analysis of yesterday's results. More voters voting Republican was the key reason McDonnell and Christie won.

You might say this is a less than ingenious analysis. But I'm not sure it's much worse than the constant refrain I keep hearing that independents breaking decisively for the Republicans was the key factor in their victories. I mean, no kidding.

We live in a political world in which the two major parties claim a lower share of the total electorate but maintain a tighter and more intense partisan affiliation for those who consider themselves Republicans or Democrats. After all, if you kept identifying as a "Republican" over the last three years, rather than drift into independent-hood as many others did, you're really, really Republican. What that means is that except in areas where party registration is overwhelmingly imbalanced, taking the better part of the non-affiliated voters (and what that means can be pretty squishy) is almost always what makes the Republican or Democrat win. Because they're the people who are up for grabs. By definition.

TPM Reader BR reminds us that unlike Charlie Crist's, Carly Fiorina's campaign has been so abysmal, that a little tea bagging from Jim DeMint may just be a matter of putting her campaign out of its misery ...

Just thought I'd drop a quick note on your coverage of the supposed "tea bagging" of Carly Fiorina in California. The reality out here is that Fiorina has run a debacle of a shadow campaign -- among other things, her website was an absolute joke, she seems to have lied about HP's business dealings with Iran, and (along with gubernatorial hopeful and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman) she seems to have had trouble in the past finding time to, you know, vote.

So while Sen. DeMint may have "deHots" for Chuck DeVore, this isn't a situation where you have a moderate Republican getting shunted aside for a wing-nutter. It's more akin to having an unqualified, underprepared-and-possibly-scandal-tainted Republican getting shunted aside for a wing-nutter. Such is the state of the GOP in this state.

Jack Bonner hired American University Professor James Thurber as an "independent ethics advisor" to counsel him on ethics matters after his firm was caught sending out numerous forged letters for lobbying clients. Now the advisor is running ads praising Bonner's illustrious deeds.

Post-Hoffman, NRSC undergoes voluntary chemical castration.

I thought the next teabagger scalp was going to be Charlie Crist in Florida. But it turns out it's Carly Fiorina out in California. That according to arch-Tea Party Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, who held a conference call last night with RedState.com's Erick Erickson.

Barbara Boxer's decision to put these two on the payroll seems to be paying real dividends.

(ed.note: To be clear, DeMint's group has already endorsed Rubio in Florida. But it seems the tea bag hunger to take down Fiorina is growing apace.)

If you're a "freedom fighter", Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) wants you to come to Capitol Hill tomorrow to roam the hills of Congress tracking down the representatives and senators who are going to take away your health care and make you French.

There's been so much focus on the Public Option that I've been thinking that a lot of people don't really have a clear sense of what's in the rest of the legislation.

Frankly, I have this great insight into the august TPM readership because frankly, I've had a hard time remembering just what's in all these bills beside the public option. Needless to say there are substantial differences between the House and Senate bills. Still, they have broad commonalities.

So today I had Brian Beutler help me out by explaining just what's in this legislation. What are the new regs? What are these exchange things? Helped me a lot. You should read it too.

Or is Ned Lamont planning to run for governor of Connecticut?

CAIR, the Council on American-Islamic Relations, is now suing the guys behind the Muslim Intern "spy" hunt story. And the Gaubatzes, the author dad and intern spy son, have hired the guy who defended Michael Savage in the Koran "Book of Hate" suit to defend them.

Should be a fun time for all.

Michael Steele: "You're Not Gonna Spoil My Juice Right Now. You're not gonna take this high away from me."

Former Michigan GOP chairman Saul Anuzis says that last night's elections show Republicans can win when they effectively control their message: "The Democrats and some of their friends in the media attempt to paint all conservatives as fire-breathing cavemen." That and other political news in today's TPMDC Morning Roundup.

Don't want to forget my favorite story of the evening. The Democratic bottle that vandalized a Republican tire. Good Times.

I'm hearing a number of people say that the upshot of last night was a rebuke for negative campaigning. But I don't buy it. Because it misconstrues cause and effect.

To a great degree people are talking about the Corzine campaign and probably to a lesser degree Hoffman. But the reason negative campaigns often lose isn't necessarily because people don't like negativity. It's because you usually get into running a negative campaign because that's the last card you've got to play. McDonnell could run a feel good campaign because he was kicking Deeds butt pretty much the whole way. Conversely, Corzine didn't lose because he ran a negative campaign. He ran a negative campaign because he was incredibly unpopular with New Jersey voters. And making Christie equally unpopular was really his only path to victory. This is elementary.

As you know, Michael Steele has been on the receiving end of a lot of grief over the past year. And my sense is he's a pretty vain guy. So he is no doubt relishing this morning's result. And he's scheduled a press conference at RNC headquarters this morning at 10:00 AM. It should be something to see. We have Evan McMorris-Santoro there on the scene to bring you the story.

Lot of tea leaves to read this morning and we're going to be looking at all of them. The toplines we know. Big GOP wins in VA and NJ. A nice pick up for the Dems in the NY-23 special election and a rebuke to the Tea Party wing of the GOP, though not one they'll necessarily recognize as such. In both gubernatorial contests, but especially in New Jersey, Republicans went to some lengths not to make their race about Obama. A key take-away from last night's result is that the one race where the Republicans consciously sought to nationalize the race was the one they lost. Finally, a very disappointing loss for marriage equality forces in Maine, but an apparent win for a civil unions law in Washington state.

Almost without any notice, Maine and Washington state both had so-called Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) initiatives on the ballot. And both went down to defeat. That's an important barometer of right-wing, anti-spending, anti-government sentiment that should not be ignored.

But what's your take. I want to hear your take on what happened last night, especially those of you who were watching races that weren't the media-focused high-profile contests in New York, New Jersey, Maine and Virginia.

Who knew the Republicans would be able to take back Congress last night?

The anti-marriage equality initiative appears to have won in Maine. Meanwhile, a civil unions initiative has prevailed in Washington state.

The Democratic victory in NY-23 provides an interesting bookend to what was unquestionably a disappointing night for Democrats. As I noted a few days ago, for the right-wingers behind the Hoffman candidacy, knocking out Scozzafava was the big prize. Actually winning the race outright would have been icing on the cake, but hardly necessary.

They have shown they can topple any moderate Republicans who don't defer to right-wing dominance of the party. On the other hand, the upshot of the Hoffman campaign was a Democratic victory.

What does that suggest about Charlie Crist down in Florida? He's the next target of the Tea Party crew. Push him aside in favor of right-wing darling Marco Rubio. The big winner of the night was McDonnell, who's very right-wing but also ran an intentionally non-polarizing campaign.

Will Republicans do Obama a big favor by nominating a crop of Hoffmans for 2010?

Doug Hoffman concedes in NY-23.

We're now at 85% reporting and more than a 4,000 margin for Owens. Looking like he's probably the winner.

Marriage equality is running about 4 points behind in Maine with about 2/3 of the vote in. But our number cruncher points out that a lot of the votes in the Portland area, which should be fertile ground for the pro-marriage equality forces, still haven't come in. So this could flip.

So it's looking like Bill Owens will end tonight with a few thousand vote margin on Doug Hoffman. But that may not be the end of the story. There are ten-thousand or so absentee ballots -- which seem to come disproportionately from Owens counties. But on top of that there was apparently some sort of mechanical breakdown of voting machines in Fulton County, which leans Republican. And they started using paper ballots, which almost certainly won't be counted tonight. So it looks good for Owens. But there are enough ballots floating around that we may not know the final result tonight.

Listening to Chris Christie's acceptance speech, I'm only now realizing the pure depth of Jon Corzine's unpopularity. This has to be the worst speech I've ever heard. This guy is seriously not ready for prime time. And yet, he just got elected.

We've now got 76% of the vote in and Owens margin has increased a bit. Owens is now up by about 4,000.

Hoffman seems to be gaining on Owens in New York 23rd. And it's looking like the number of absentee ballots will likely outnumber the margin between the two candidates by a substantial amount.

It's starting to look like this might not be done tonight.

There's been some back and forth in NY-23 over the course of the evening. But it's now at 2/3 of the vote in and Owens is up by a bit more than 3500 votes.

Plus there's this: we've got this report from the Watertown Daily Times that there are four precincts in St. Lawrence County where the precincts had mechanical problems and results won't be available tonight. Now we don't know the political complexion of those precincts. But our Eric Kleefeld points out that Owens has won that county. So those are likely, though by no means certainly, disproportionately Owens votes.

We're now at 38% reporting in Maine, and it's dead even. 200 votes ahead for equality out of about 225,000.

It looks like Bloomberg is going to pull this out. With 80% of the votes in, he's up 50% to 47% over Thompson. But a lot of people in New York City weren't even thinking of this as a real race. A margin that slim is a major rebuke for Bloomberg.

10:53 PM: With 94% reporting it's Bloomberg 50%, Thompson 46%. Still a big wake up call for Bloomberg.

It's tightening in NY-23. WIth 56% of the vote in, Owens is up over Hoffman 49% to 46%. But remember, this is a low turnout House race. So that margin is only a couple thousand votes.

10:20 PM: Okay, the GOP bagged the two governors' contests. Predictably in VA, a bit more surprisingly in NJ. So what's left? Well, NY-23, for the moment looks close. So does the Maine gay marriage amendment. And weirdly, the NY Mayor's race seems weirdly close. As noted before, MSNBC has uncalled their original call for Bloomberg. And even the Times seems to be slightly dialing back their call for Bloomberg. I'm really curious just what on earth is going on in NY. Could conceivably be the sleeper story of the night -- even if Bloomberg just wins by an unexpectedly slim margin. We're trying to get a handle on what's happening in NYC. Definitely send us tips if you're working the election and you have a handle on what's up.

10:10 PM: AP calls it for Christie.

10:13 PM: MSNBC calls it for Christie.

9:27 PM: If you're focused on NJ-Gov, take a moment to look at the results in Maine. Not many votes yet but a narrow lead for the marriage equality side.

9:29 PM: Those Christie/Corzine numbers haven't looked great for Corzine. But we've got Eric Kleefeld here in electoral mad scientist mode reading the entrails of the counties. And he keeps saying Corzine's holding on. More to come on this one. Neck and neck in Bergen at the moment (Eric is saying that's the bellwether and I'm pretending I already knew that.)

9:40 PM: Nets call it for Bloomberg.

9:42 PM: County by county breakdown looking a little better for Christie in New Jersey.

9:52 PM: Our vote cruncher is looking at the county by county and sees Christie solidly in the driver's seat -- poor metaphor, but, you know, in solid position. Doesn't seem clear where Corzine picks up enough more Democratic votes to close the gap.

10:02 PM: Not sure what to make of it. But MSNBC has uncalled the New York Mayor's race. The Times is still calling it. Not sure what that's about. But we're looking into it.

10:04 PM: According to Rachel Maddow, Thompson, the Democrat, had already called Bloomberg to concede the race. But the local monitoring service that MSNBC relied on to make the call withdrew their prediction in favor of Bloomberg. And thus MSNBC pulled theirs too. As you can see from our scorecard down at the right, the numbers are actually pretty tight with 40% recording. The Times, which one would assume has a good handle on the city, is still calling it for Bloomberg.

8:28 PM: So far, the internals from the NJ exit polls show some good signs for Christie, particularly his running very strong among independents. But sources tell me the toplines of the exits are literally neck and neck. Less than a point separating the two.

8:40 PM: Okay, fine this is the NJ-Gov live blog. But keep a close eye on the Maine same sex marriage initiative down there at the bottom of our election scorecard. Only 2% of the votes in. But there are initial good signs for the "No" (pro-gay marriage side). As we reported earlier this afternoon, turnout was unexpectedly heavy.

8:42 PM: Starting to seem like New Jersey might keep us up late.

9:10 PM: We're watching the NJ results very closely. The areas reporting thus far tilt Republican. So despite Christie's clear margin, this one is still too close to call.

9:19 PM: Christie has a healthy lead over Corzine at the moment: 10 points with a third of the vote in. But our resident number cruncher, Eric Kleefeld, still says the areas already reporting are disproportionately GOP areas. It would seem it's at least going to get a lot closer. Whether Corzine will close the gap, hard to say.

Nets calling NJ-Gov as too close to call. This squares with what I've been hearing through the afternoon: exits polls saying dead even. Another round of exits likely to come in soon. More shortly.

8:05 PM: Hotline has NJ exits with Indies breaking overwhelmingly for Christie and with some evidence that Daggett supporters broke for Christie. Not good for Corzine if that bears out.

8:09 PM: Remember New Jersey has a strong Dem party registration advantage. So Corzine can still win even while losing independents in a big way. But the big story of the night, thus far, especially in Virginia is Democrats and Obama voters just not showing up. So this is really going to come down to whether the Corzine campaign can turn out Dems in big numbers.

There ya go.

As you can see, we've still got less than 10% of the results in in Virginia. And none of the networks are venturing a call yet. That in itself is a minor surprise since Deeds was so far behind in the polls.

See the results come in on our scoreboard to the right.

Remember too, Northern Virginia results tend to come in late in Virginia races. So perhaps the network callers want to see some representatives precincts come in up there before they venture a prediction. We'll keep you posted in this thread.

7:46 PM: Deedsmentum! Can Deeds make it to 8 PM with no call in the VA Gov's race?

7:55 PM: Still no call. WTF? To be clear, this sounds like "too early to call" not "too close to call." Still, I'm surprised they're not calling it yet. Figure they're waiting for numbers from NOVA. If you're in the mix, send me a line.

7:58 PM: So close! Deeds hold out till 7:58 PM before MSNBC called it for McDonnell. So close.

Fox News not really bringing out the distinction between the VA and NJ Govs races.

7:20 PM: Interesting nugget from the NBC exits. In Virginia, 15% of the electorate was African-American compared to 20% last year.

7:06 PM and VA-Gov race still not called for McDonnell.

As you can see by the scoreboard to the right, we'll be counting down your live election results right here tonight.

7 PM VA
8 PM NJ, Maine
9 PM NY

Looks like we've got a fun one cookin' already.

A short while ago, Conservative Doug Hoffman, the special election candidate in NY-23, breathlessly announced that frustrated Dems had slashed the tires of one of his campaign workers. Right-wing yakkers rose to heights of auto-blogotic self-asphyxiation.

Alas, closer inspection suggests, and local police confirm, said poll worker ran over a bottle.

New headline: GOP campaign worker's tires slashed by Dem bottle.

In our first installment of the Scott Rothstein fraud story we told you that accused Florida political power player Scott Rothstein (allegedly) made off with a $100 million in other people's money. Now it turns out he almost made off with GOP fixer Roger Stone's website.

TPMMuckraker's Justin Elliott got hold of Stone today who told him the whole sordid tale -- Rothstein's attempts to censor Stone's criticisms of Rothstein's pal Charlie Crist on Stone's website, Rothstein pulling the plug on the infamous Stone Zone, a ridiculous scale of high living, compulsive political contributions, a private investigator. You could say the relationship seems to have broken down.

Justin has the story.

It's looking like unexpectedly high turnout in Maine today. The conventional wisdom would suggest that's good news for marriage equality supporters.

Of course, conventional wisdom and $3.95 will buy you an overpriced cuppa Joe at your local cafe.

Gibbs says Obama decision on Afghanistan still "weeks" away.

The Christie campaign is complaining to the state election commission and calling for an investigation of Democratic robocalls promoting independent candidate Chris Daggett in Republican friendly parts of the state.

Sens. Nelson and Landrieu say they haven't given up hope that they can resurrect a 'triggered' public option with the help of Sen. Snowe.

Man, if these were Dems, John Fund might have a serious, election-undermining scandal on his hands.

We have late reports that police had to be called to a St. Lawrence County polling sites when frenzied and sticker clad Hoffman backers refused to leave the 100 foot non-electioneering zone around the poll. They were "yelling anti-choice stuff at voters," says a former state Dem chair.

Meet Scott Rothstein, the new mini-Madoff to the tune of some $100 million.

Now with special bonus. He's a big giver to politicians of both parties -- and a close friend of and fundraiser for Gov. Charlie Crist, the increasingly embattled contender for the Florida GOP senate nomination. And if that's not enough, we'll throw in the fact that he's a business partner of Republican uber-operative and dirty trickster Roger Stone.

All this for the low, low price of $19.99! Actually, who am I kidding. All this for the low, low price of nothing: just click here.

Settlements can only be this big.

The centrist is an elusive and unpredictable species. It is prone to darting out of press conferences before the Q&A starts. When backed into a corner by reporters, the centrist is known to give vague, uncomfortable answers, eye flitting about looking for escape routes. Our Brian Beutler encountered a female from the rare subspecies of Senate centrists today on Capitol Hill, and she exhibited many of the behavior patterns of her kind, especially when pressed on health care reform.

In an interview with TPMDC, former DNC chairman Howard Dean draws a bright line between voting against a public option and filibustering it:

Even though I disagree with him, Joe Lieberman is well within his right to vote against a public option. [But] no one has the right to oppose the leader. That isn't fair.

Read the rest of the Dean interview here.

A lot of folks fondly reminiscing today about where they were and what they were doing one year ago. One year seems a bit premature for nostalgia, and my reaction to it was dismissive initially. Some of the nostalgia seems like a salve for the disappointments of the last year or for the expected poor showing by Democrats tonight. (But I suppose it's not unusual for our nostalgia to say more about us in the present than it does about the past.) Then I watched this outtake from the HBO documentary on Obama debuting tonight and suddenly a year felt like a very long time, and the '08 campaign like a quaint and simple time. Which I guess means I succumbed to the nostalgia, too, albeit unwillingly.

For the last few days, Republicans and their media enablers have been laying the groundwork to declare any close races today as stolen by Democratic election fraud.

If you're going to be up on Capitol Hill on Thursday, watch out! That's when Rep. Michele Bachmann is holding her Capitol Hill Tea Party. They'll start on the Capitol steps and then fan out into the halls of the building until they see the "whites of their eyes" and convince them not to give way to socialism.

Sounds fun.

I've been at this so long I remember going head to head with John Fund about his bogus charges of vote fraud against Indians during the South Dakota senate race (Thune v. Johnson) in 2002.

Good times.

Contrary to reports out this morning, Reid communications director Jim Manley tells TPMDC: "We do not yet have an understanding with Senator Lieberman."

Just as a bit of background, it's worth knowing that these kinds of things are seldom black and white and confidential understandings often cannot survive contact with the light of day or on the record questioning.

Rush Limbaugh outdid himself yesterday with a really sleazy dig at GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava, saying she was "guilty of widespread bestiality. She has screwed every RINO in the country." I know. I feel dirty even repeating it.

Doug Hoffman got asked whether he denounced it or had any comment. He declined, said no comment.

Election Day! We'll be here all day and into the night bringing you all the latest. That and the day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.

Hmmm. Close race, state with big African-American population, election day, Fox/Drudge right-wing news machine ... isn't about time for the phony vote fraud allegations to start flying?

That's what I thought.

The government of Antigua has voted to strip "Sir" Allen Stanford of his ersatz Antiguan knighthood.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) will meet privately tomorrow afternoon with President Obama.

Democrat Bill Owens is now coming to the defense of former rival Republican Dede Scozzafava after she's attacked by Rush Limbaugh. And I must say, the attack was pretty offensive even by Rush standards.

Fox News' Neil Cavuto goes off on passionate defense of Fox News Fair-and-Balancedism. "We are not red. We are not blue. We're green."

Scozzafava drops out and endorses Hoffman!!!

Or ... well, maybe she endorsed Democrat Bill Owens!!!

Either way it's great news for Hoffman ...

This was pretty classic even for Fox. Fox News managed to go almost two days reporting that Dede Scozzafava had dropped out to help Doug Hoffman beat Democrat Bill Owens. And then they went as far as to report that Scozzafava had endorsed Hoffman. This despite the fact there was no evidence for either and ample evidence that Scozzafava was privately supporting Owens.

Watch Fox News' wishful thinking getting the better of it live on TV.

Scene from White House Halloween celebration?

Or fever vision from Teabagger/anti-health care activist acid trip?

Your call.

As we told you a few moments ago, the Christie campaign got dinged for ripping off stock footage for one of their campaign commercials.

We've now heard from the stock house that after getting caught the Christie campaign got in touch with them and paid the fee retrospectively.

The ad is now back up on their site.

Rep. Foxx (R-NC): Health Care Reform bill a bigger threat to America than any terrorist in the world.

Christie campaign gets caught ripping off stock video footage for its campaign commercials.

What does Christie have against capitalism?

The question hanging over the NJ governor's campaign is whether we'll see the supposed pattern in which Democrats out-perform the polls through superior organization on the ground. One close watcher of New Jersey politics makes the following, paradoxical argument:

If Democrats win on the ground because of superior ground organization in the big population centers that's because of the state's big urban machines. Now, one of the Christie's big cudgels in this campaign has been anti-corruption, anti-machine politics -- an angle given particular salience by a series of high-profile corruption indictments. Ironically, though, Corzine's really never been that close or particularly well-liked by a number of the key machine figures in New Jersey. Politically, Corzine's always been sort of an outsider in New Jersey politics. And some of those machines aren't as robust as they were a few years ago because of some of those indictments.

So while Corzine's taken a lot of hits because of New Jersey machine politics it's not entirely clear they're going to be willing or able to pull out all the stops for him in the way they did for, say ... Menendez in 2006. It's a speculative point, but one worth considering.

Near the end of the day on Monday, we now have a full, though murkier, picture of what the polls say about the New Jersey governor's race one day out. Here's the latest. (See all NJ-Gov polls here.)

Three polls out this morning or overnight all showed small margins for Christie. More significant, however, they all showed movement in Christie's direction since the previous survey by that pollster. Most significant in my mind was the Quinnipiac poll which showed only a two point margin for Christie but a 7 point move in his direction since Quinnipiac's last poll released October 28th.

This afternoon though we've had two more polls showing a narrow Corzine lead. One is the Dem-affiliated Democracy Corps poll, which is a solid poll but has consistently shown a Corzine-tilt relative to other polls during this campaign. And Monmouth has now released a poll showing a 2 point margin for Corzine -- in contrast to a 1 point Christie margin in a poll Monmouth released over the weekend.

This race better end quickly for Chris Christie's sake or else he's going to have too many copyright infringement suits to handle. Monty Python is already threatening to sue the campaign for using one of their skits without permission. And now the Christie campaign has had to take down another ad for stealing stock video from a stock footage house.

Sort of a giveaway when the anti-theft watermark is still there on your thirty second ad.

More in a moment.

Purged GOPer Dede Scozzafava records robocall for Democrat Bill Owens.

Also fun: Hoffman, the Conservative party candidate who ran Scozzafava out of the race, says Glenn Beck is his "mentor."

TPM Reader TG ponders the possibilities: "Imagine what would have happened to Joe Lieberman long ago if Lyndon Johnson were President."

The Council on American-Islamic Relations is now suing in federal court to retrieve documents allegedly taken by the son of the author of that book claiming CAIR plants Muslim spies as interns on Capitol Hill. The son, fittingly enough, was posing as an intern for CAIR to help his father research the book.

In today's TPM Photo Feature: Joe Lieberman's List of Broken Promises ... his and those other credulous Dems have made on his behalf.

In a letter to his Republican colleagues obtained by Greg Sargent, Majority Leader Harry Reid dispenses with his usual passive conciliation and goes with some aggressive mockery:

I would note that the Republican leadership's health care plan remains a secret, unless perhaps it does not exist.

Needless to say, I fully understand if your plan is still under development, and would not presume to suggest that you publicly share draft legislative text for even an individual element of your plan, let alone an entire bill, before it is finalized. ...

There's nothing more threatening in a democratic society than prosecutors or law enforcement using their powers for political purposes or to settle personal scores. That is what the US Attorney firing scandal of 2007 was about after all. And now we seem to have a related case.

You may know of Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the colorful and high-profile Sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona, best known for his hardline stance on illegal immigration. Early last month we told you about Arpaio's and a political ally's effort to import DC TV lawyer power couple Joe diGenova and Victoria Toensing as "special prosecutors" for what appeared to be a fairly transparent hit against one of Arpaio's local GOP political opponents.

That effort eventually got shut down by County officials. But now come reports that the FBI is investigating Arpaio for multiple instances of using his authority as Sheriff to retaliate against political enemies.

Special bonus: two of the fired US Attorneys from 2007 are involved in the case. One, Paul Charlton is defending one of Arpaio's seeming persecutees and another, David Iglesias gave a local paper his opinion on the case and for his trouble received a blistering attack from Arpaio himself.

Read our report here -- important story.

Late Update: David Iglesias responds to the Arpaio attack. --dk

Joe Lieberman's threat to filibuster any Democratic health care reform bill that contains a public option is an ironic coda to all those promises Joe made -- in 2006 after he lost the Democratic primary and again earlier this year when his chairmanship was in jeopardy for backing John McCain for President -- that he was a good Democrat at heart. We round up Joe's broken promises -- and the assurances so many establishment Democrats made on Joe's behalf -- in our latest slideshow.

(ed. note: Have we forgotten any especially oily comments from Joe and others that really rankle in light of the filibuster threat? Send them our way, preferably with a link so we can verify them.)

Anti-abortion activist organizing auction of murder-glorifying art by accused murderer of George Tiller says that pictures do not glorify violence.

Now from Monmouth: Corzine 43%, Christie 41%.

Roberts Gibbs, on President Obama's congratulatory call to Hamid Karzai, "Obviously he is the legitimate leader of the country."

Another important read from Ezra Klein on why the current version of health care reform is missing the boat.

We've now got a third poll out this morning of the NJ governor's race. This one from SurveyUSA: Christie 45%, Corzine 42%, Daggett 10%. As with the Quinnipiac poll, the margin itself is very small. But each of the polls out today has shown movement in Christie's direction. More details here.

Late Update: And now there's a fourth. Democracy Corps, a Dem-affiliated but highly respected poll has final poll out showing Corzine over Christie by four points. And, not surprisingly, Corzine does better the higher the turnout you estimate.

Michael Hilton

Remember Michael Hilton?

Aka, "Captain" Michael Hilton, the California con man who set up American Police Force to take over that jail up in Hardin, Montana?

In court in California last week on an unrelated charge, Hilton all but admitted that the whole APF episode had been a scam from the start and that he's now broke and having trouble paying his own rent.

Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL)

If Democrats have a bad night tomorrow night it will be a real headache for the White House. But I don't think there's any question that the big loser as of this moment is Charlie Crist and, potentially, a string of other moderate Republicans angling for 2010 nominations. Already yesterday, folks on the right who were most vocal in pushing Hoffman's candidacy were explicitly pointing to Crist as their next target and seeming genuinely confident they could deny him the Florida GOP senate nomination and hand it to Marco Rubio.

In other news Newt Gingrich has a little egg on his face too since he was almost alone among high-profile conservatives defending Scazzofava on party unity and big tent grounds, only to see her drop out and support the Dem.

We now have the final Siena poll out for the NY-23 special election. Like last night's PPP poll, it has Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman in the lead. But by a far smaller margin. PPP had a 16 or 17 point margin, depending on whether Dede Scozzafava (the regular GOP nominee who has now left the race) is included. Siena has it at Hoffman 41%, Owens 36% with fully 18% undecided.

Read more »

Anti-abortion extremists are raising money for the defense of Scott Roeder, the accused murderer of George Tiller, with murder-glorifying art 'commissioned' by Roeder while in prison. The group is also auctioning a 'prison cookbook' from Shelley Shannon, who is currently serving time for shooting Tiller back in 1993.

Mitt Romney declares that any economic recovery is completely unrelated to the stimulus package. That and the day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.

The final Siena poll shows Conservative Doug Hoffman only 5 points ahead of Democrat Bill Owens.

A seven-point swing in Chris Christie's favor over the last week in the latest Quinnipiac poll: Christie 42%, Corzine 40%.

Chris Christie

As noted below, Public Policy Polling is showing a much bigger advantage for Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 special election than two other key pollsters tracking the race. And the difference seems tied to PPP's assumptions of a much more Republican electorate than the other outfits are expecting.

Those assumptions seem to apply as well to the NJ-Gov race. PPP is out tonight with a final survey of this race. And they show Christie 47%, Corzine 41%, a substantial margin compared to pretty much every other pollster who has looked at this race over the last couple weeks.

There's little doubt there will be a number of final polls of this race out tomorrow. So we'll have a better sense of whether PPP is an outlier (and remember, outliers can be right) or whether there's a broader trend of momentum back in Christie's favor.

Public Policy Polling now has a late poll out on the NY-23 special election and it shows Hoffman pretty much crushing Owens. The poll was taken over the weekend. And obviously a lot happened over these couple days. But according to PPP's Tom Jensen, the results changed very little from before Scozzafava's suspension till after it and continued pretty much the same after she endorsed Owens today.

PPP came up with Hoffman 51%, Owens 34%, Scozzafava 13% in a three way race and Hoffman over Owens 54% to 38% in a two person race.

Read more »

TPM Reader DC checks in from New Jersey ...

My view from Jersey City:

You correctly note that NJ polls tend to underestimate Democratic turnout in the cites in statewide races--Newark, the Oranges, Hudson County--because they don't account for the party's stong GOTV operation.

You fail to account for the opposite.

Read more »

President Obama is in New Jersey tonight for one final campaign appearance with Gov. Jon Corzine (see Obama's speech here). But the polls continue to shed little light on just who's in the driver's seat going into Tuesday night. Of the last four released, all on Friday, each candidate leads in two.

Christie's collapse over the last month and the relentlessly bad series of news cycles he's had had gotten me used to thinking that Corzine was going to win this one. But the truth is these polls just give no reason to think this isn't a coin toss. And for all the bad news, Christie's still standing. And really no worse than tied. I'm slightly less confident of Corzine's ability to pull this one out than I was a few days ago, though I really can't point to any concrete reason or number to support that slight shift in impression.

It seems to me that you've got two contending factors -- either of which could be the key to understanding the results of Tuesday night.

Read more »

Now that Dede Scozzafava has dropped out of the special election in NY-23, the odds look pretty good for Doug Hoffman, even though Scozzafava's Sunday endorsement of Owens adds a new wrinkle of uncertainty. And in any case it was always going to be the New Jersey governor's race that I would be watching most closely. But I don't think there's any question that the New York special election is turning out to be the significant contest this cycle. And that will be the case regardless of who actually wins the race. After all, for Republican hardliners, the goal of this whole exercise was taking out Scozzafava. If Hoffman actually wins the race, that's just icing on the cake.

Every non-hard-right congressional Republican will have this episode in mind going forward the next year -- it will shape votes, positions on key issues. And what happened in this race will be the backdrop for every primary contest between a mainline and hard-right Republican this cycle -- think particularly of the Crist/Rubio contest in Florida, which hard-right Republicans are already pointing to as the logical place to repeat the Scozzafava/Hoffman pattern.

This is the electoral equivalent of those brief moments earlier this year when prominent Republicans issued tepid criticisms of Rush Limbaugh only to be forced into craven apologies hours or days later. The hard-right of the GOP just got a much stronger lock on the institutional Republican party than it had before. And, let's face it: the lock was pretty strong to start with.

That was a year ago?

One year on from election day, Team Obama takes several trips down memory lane remembering the big night -- including a special red carpet screening of the new HBO Obama documentary in Chicago on Friday night.

Christina Bellantoni reports.

In its endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens today, the Watertown Daily Times said that over the course of yesterday Dede Scozzafava, the regular GOP nominee who bowed out yesterday, "began to quietly and thoughtfully encourage her supporters to vote for Democrat William L. Owens."

The Times itself didn't leave much room for doubt about its views. The strongest line: "It is frightening that Mr. Hoffman is so beholden to right-wing ideologues who dismiss Northern New Yorkers as parochial when people here simply want to know how Mr. Hoffman will protect their interests in Washington."

This is a reference to an incident we noted a few weeks ago when Hoffman showed up to a meeting with the paper's editorial board with former House Majority Leader Dick Armey and then got defensive and abrupt when he wasn't able to answer questions about the district or the issues that faced it. Armey stepped in and chastised the editors for focusing on "parochial" issues.

Late Update: As you can see in our feature story, this afternoon Scozzafava removed all doubt and formally endorsed Owens.